PETALING JAYA: Former MIC chief Dr S Subramaniam predicts that a coalition led by Barisan Nasional will form the government after the Nov 19 general election (GE15) although the opposition will do well in urban areas.
The former health minister said this was not due to a transformation in BN but to disarray in the opposition.
He told FMT the split in Malay votes among BN, Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) was likely to mainly affect Pakatan Harapan (PH). He said PH would lose much of the votes it obtained in the 2018 general election, particularly in urban and suburban areas.
“The substantial number of seats the Sabah and Sarawak coalitions will win is expected to benefit BN after the elections as BN will definitely have the most number of seats in the peninsula although this will not be enough for a simple majority,” he said.
“After what happened over the last four years, the Sabah and Sarawak coalitions are likely to be pragmatic by throwing their support behind the party that leads the federal government. Gabungan Parti Sarawak showed this after the PH government fell.”
However, he said, if PH were to win an unexpectedly higher number of seats, GPS and Gagasan Rakyat Sabah might consider teaming up with it instead to form a stable central government.
Subramaniam, who lost the Segamat seat in GE14, said he expected MIC to fare better this time.
He also said the opposition would continue to do well in urban contests but it was the suburban and rural seats that would determine who formed the government.
He said BN would do well even if it obtained the same number of votes it got the last time because of the crowded field with many Malay parties.
As for the Malay-majority Segamat seat, which BN and its predecessor, the Alliance, held from the first to the 13th general election before Subramaniam lost it, he said BN should be able to wrest it back.
“Ironically, you have three Indian candidates vying for the Malay-majority seat in a constituency where Indians form the smallest number of voters,” he said. “Based on current trends, I expect BN to get most of the Malay votes and it should be the first past the post with a good percentage of Chinese and Indian votes.”
About 49% of the electorate is Malay with Chinese voters making up 41% and Indians 10%.
